Bitcoin currently trades around $105,000 (as of June 19), yet some reputable analysts are projecting a path toward surpassing $200,000 by the end of 2025. For comparison, such a 90% increase would lift Bitcoin’s market capitalization to roughly $3.9 trillion.

This target may sound exaggerated, but it isn’t if we consider two simple forces:

- A sharp drop in the pace of new coin issuance, and

- a sharp rise in institutional demand.

These two forces are already impacting Bitcoin’s price.

The supply crisis is real and intensifying

To understand how Bitcoin’s price responds to demand volume, one must delve into supply-demand dynamics.

Every four years, the Bitcoin protocol cuts the mining reward in half, reducing the flow of new coins into the market. On April 20, 2024, the network underwent its latest “halving,” reducing the annual number of newly issued coins from about 328,500 to just 164,000.

With 19.9 million coins already mined out of the 21 million maximum, the new supply is now growing at a rate below 0.8% per year. By April 2028, another halving will further reduce the supply, pushing many investors to buy before scarcity intensifies.

This severe drop in new supply is met by steadily increasing demand.

Bitcoin ETFs are putting pressure on supply

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have so far attracted over $46 billion, including $1.8 billion in inflows during just six days in mid-June. These funds, alongside institutional investors and publicly traded companies, now hold around 6% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

At the current price, this capital has removed the equivalent of 360,000 coins from the open market — more than two years' worth of Bitcoin production at the current issuance rate.

If inflows continue at even half their current pace, available supply could shrink by an additional 2% to 3% before 2026, potentially pushing prices much higher, as the number of sellers declines faster than buyers.

In other words, the market doesn’t need a speculative frenzy for Bitcoin prices to rise. All it takes is for buyers to keep funneling money into ETFs at a pace that outstrips miners’ ability to produce coins — and that is already happening.

The outlook: Why demand may continue rising

Alongside supply dynamics, there are favorable economic winds that could boost Bitcoin demand. In May, U.S. core inflation slowed to its lowest level since 2023, while the Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady since March. Many expect the Fed to cut rates later this year, making Bitcoin — a scarce asset that doesn’t yield income — more attractive in a low real yield environment.

Meanwhile, regulatory clarity in Europe may encourage institutional market entry. The MiCA framework began granting new licenses to major exchanges in mid-June, opening a unified market of 27 countries, reducing regulatory risk, and encouraging European pension funds and other institutions to invest.

Challenges: It won’t be a smooth ride

Despite all this, the path to $200,000 won’t necessarily be smooth or direct. Markets still face geopolitical and economic uncertainty, in addition to volatile U.S. trade policy.

A sudden liquidity crisis — triggered by a geopolitical shock or a new wave of inflation from tariffs — could dampen risk appetite and trigger a selloff.

Political risks also remain; U.S. lawmakers are debating crypto tax policies and custody rules. The passage of a negative law could halt new ETF issuance or raise investment costs, weakening institutional demand.

Conclusion: Is $200,000 realistic?

Barring a major shock, Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2026 appears to be a realistic — albeit ambitious — possibility.

If ETFs absorb an additional $50 billion before the end of 2025, they would pull around 475,000 more coins out of the market, assuming an average purchase price of roughly $105,000.

But the good news for investors is that it’s not about hitting a specific price target in a specific time frame. The biggest rewards for Bitcoin holders come over the long term, not the short term.

So the smartest move for an investor is simply to buy Bitcoin and hold it.

U.S. stock indices rose slightly on Monday after a weak opening, as markets digested ongoing trade escalation.

On Saturday, President Donald Trump announced a decision to impose 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico starting August 1.

Despite the announcement, officials from both the EU and Mexico expressed their willingness to continue negotiations with the United States.

In a separate development, Trump continued to pressure the Federal Reserve, calling for Chairman Jerome Powell to resign immediately.

Later this week, key inflation data for the previous month will be released in the United States, offering insights into how the trade war is affecting prices.

As of 16:37 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.1% (21 points) to 44,392, the S&P 500 gained 0.1% (2 points) to 6,262, while the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.2% (40 points) to 20,625.

Copper prices declined on Monday as the U.S. dollar edged higher against most major currencies and markets tracked developments in global trade tensions.

Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports pushed U.S. copper prices to record highs, but analysts expect prices to gradually retreat in the coming months as traders offload the large stockpiles they had built in anticipation of the new duties.

The tariff follows a U.S. Commerce Department investigation launched in February, which had been expected to result in a 25% duty. However, even the anticipation of the move prompted a stockpiling surge, with copper prices on the COMEX exchange rising 25% from January through last Monday.

Following Trump’s announcement on Tuesday, COMEX prices soared to an all-time high of $5.6820 per pound, or $12,526 per metric ton — over $2,920 more than the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) price of around $9,600 per ton.

Expected Price Decline as U.S. Demand Slows

Tom Price, analyst at Panmure Liberum, stated: “Once the noise around Trump’s tariffs subsides, we expect U.S. copper prices to decline and converge with global prices, as American consumption is likely to be deferred.”

He noted that U.S. copper demand is weak, forecasting a 16% drop this year to 1.32 million tons from last year.

Part of the decline stems from tariff-related uncertainty, which has slowed economic growth. U.S. manufacturing data — from a sector heavily reliant on copper — shows the industry remains in contraction.

U.S. Copper Stockpiles Show Major Surplus

According to analysis by Macquarie, using trade data from January to May and June shipping figures, U.S. copper imports totaled around 881,000 metric tons in the first half of the year, while actual demand amounted to only 441,000 tons.

This leaves a surplus of 440,000 tons, split between 107,000 tons in visible COMEX storage and 333,000 tons in unreported inventories or pre-purchased stock held in industrial supply chains.

U.S. Inventories Rise While London’s Shrink

A large share of the surplus has been stored in COMEX warehouses, where copper inventories reached 221,788 short tons (about 201,203 metric tons) as of July 7 — up more than 127,000 short tons, or 135%, since late March when global shipments began arriving at U.S. ports.

Meanwhile, LME copper inventories have fallen 66% since mid-February, dropping to about 90,000 metric tons by late June — their lowest level since August 2023.

Some of the U.S. stock is held in free trade zones, meaning it has not yet cleared customs and can be more easily re-exported.

Copper stored in duty-paid COMEX warehouses would face more hurdles for re-export, but it's still possible. Duncan Hobbs, research director at Concord Resources, said: “There’s nothing stopping re-exported, customs-cleared copper… but it would require a financial incentive, such as a drop in the COMEX premium.”

Tariff Exemptions Add to Uncertainty

Another factor that could weigh on U.S. copper prices is the possibility of exemptions for certain countries. This could erode the COMEX premium, according to industry sources.

Chile is a strong candidate for exemption, accounting for 70% of U.S. copper imports in 2023 — about 646,000 metric tons, per Trade Data Monitor. The U.S. also has a trade surplus with Chile, making a political exemption more feasible.

Citi analysts, including Tom Mulqueen, expect countries like Canada, Chile, and Mexico to eventually face a reduced tariff of just 25%, as “core partners.”

Traders Face Hurdles Offloading Stockpiled Copper

For now, traders who rushed to get ahead of the tariffs are left holding some of the most expensive copper in the world — which may be hard to sell unless U.S. market premiums persist.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 97.9 at 16:09 GMT, reaching a high of 98.1 and a low of 97.7.

As for trading, September copper futures were up 1.2% at $5.53 per pound at 16:04 GMT.

Bitcoin soared to record highs against the U.S. dollar on Monday morning, as markets gear up for a critical week of crypto legislation in the United States, with several major bills slated for votes in Congress.

The cryptocurrency traded above $122,000 early Monday, up 3.3%, after hitting its highest price ever earlier in the day.

On a year-over-year basis, Bitcoin has more than doubled in value following U.S. President Donald Trump’s election victory.

Trump is known for his favorable stance on digital assets. He previously spoke about Bitcoin during his campaign and his family launched a crypto venture with its own token — a move that sparked ethical debate.

Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, commented: “Donald Trump spoke about making America the global capital of crypto, and now the market is hoping those words turn into action.”

He added: “Bitcoin’s recent price action signals that investors and traders are expecting something big during this so-called ‘Crypto Week.’ The coin has risen nearly 10% in just five days — a clear sign of FOMO (fear of missing out), a pattern we see every time Bitcoin headlines dominate.”

He continued: “Crypto enthusiasts are convinced digital assets are the future of finance. And while there’s momentum from investors, governments, and corporations alike, the landscape remains unsettled, with more questions than answers.”

What Is “Crypto Week” in the United States?

This week, the U.S. Congress is expected to vote on a series of landmark bills that could shape the future of the digital asset market. According to investment platform AJ Bell, the most notable bills include:

1. The Clarity Act

Full name: The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act

This bill aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, including cryptocurrencies.

2. The Genius Act

Full name: The Guiding Innovation for National Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act

This legislation would establish the first federal regulatory structure for stablecoins — cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar.

The Senate already passed the bill last month, marking a major milestone in crypto regulation. It now awaits House approval, and crypto advocates hope for swift passage.

The bill is significant because it would allow private companies to issue stablecoins. Amazon and Walmart have already expressed interest in becoming early issuers.

3. The CBDC Act

Full name: The Anti-Surveillance Central Bank Digital Currency Act

This bill aims to block the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), amid concerns it could be used as a surveillance tool.

Bitcoin Rally Lifts Broader Crypto Market

- Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, surged past the $3,000 mark, up 2.8% early Monday.

- Publicly traded crypto-related stocks also climbed in premarket trading:

– Shares of Strategy Incorporated (MSTR) — formerly MicroStrategy — jumped.

– Shares of Coinbase (COIN) also rose.